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NEWS & PRESS UPDATES

Jun
5
2024

Press Relese

Primary Results Show Rep. Michelle Steel is Set Up to Lose in 2024

Primary Results Show Rep. Michelle Steel is Set Up to Lose in 2024

An analysis of Michelle Steel’s underperformance in the 2024 California Primary election shows voters ready for change.

 Garden Grove, CA —  As the 2024 congressional race heats up in California's 45th District, an analysis of the March 5, 2024 primary results shows vulnerable MAGA Republican Michelle Steel significantly underperformed and is in serious risk of losing her seat. Steel faces a tough November electorate against Democratic nominee, Army veteran, workers’ rights advocate, and small business owner Derek Tran who is on track to flip this seat from Red to Blue this November.

In the 2024 primary, Michelle Steel received -2% less of total vote share than she did in the 2022 primary, despite the electorate being +3% more Republican this past March. This resulted in a net loss of -5% for Steel in the 2024 primary. In the 2022 General Election, Steel's vote share dropped by -4.5% from her 2022 primary performance, even though the electorate was only -1% less Republican.

Furthermore, Steel received 52.4% of the vote in a midterm General Election in which Republicans comprised 40% of the electorate and Democrats were 38%. Current party registration in the district is 37.9% Democratic and 32.2% Republican. The projected general electorate for 2024 is 38.6% Democratic and 35% Republican.

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